I'm Confused! Conflicting Social Media Studies

One of the most confusing things to me about all this social media stuff is the constant conflicting information. One day there's a study showing one thing; the next there's another that shows just the opposite.

For instance, WorkPlace Media's recent study "Can Big Brands Crash The Social Networking Party?" found "The overall impact of a brand's presence on social networking sites was shown to be minimal in terms of impact and perception." Stephanie Molnar, CEO of WorkPlace Media, says "When it comes to influencing brand perception and purchase decisions... social networking... has a long way to go."

But then you check out Charlene Li/Wetpaint's new research on "deep brand engagement" and it seems to show just the opposite--that the brands most deeply engaged in social media demonstrated an average 18% growth in revenue over the past 12 months compared to the least engaged, who showed an average decline of 6% in revenue over that same period. This doesn't seem to illustrate brands being minimally impacted by social media; seems to be pretty persuasive evidence of the exact opposite.

Now the same thing with the teens/Twitter thing. First "Stats Confirm It: Teens Don't Tweet." Ok.

But then I read this. "Naturally, younger respondents were more familiar with the microblogging site. Only 11% of 18-to-39-year-old advertisers did not know enough about Twitter to have an opinion on its value, compared with 20% of advertisers ages 40 to 49 and 21% of those 50 and older." What do you mean, "naturally"? I thought teens don't use Twitter? Which is it--they don't use it or they're the experts?

What this whole thing underscores for me is the reality that it's impossible to be a social media "expert" because social media is a constantly moving target, with new "truths" being revealed--and dispelled--every day.

What's New In Nerd World

There's lots of excitement in the air if you're me--cool new tools, ongoing blogger drama and an awesome conference coming up:

Google Wave--basically "a new tool for communication and collaboration on the web" that apparently originated from the question "“What might e-mail look like if it were invented today?” I'm having trouble wrapping my head around it so I'm not even going to try; all I know is I hate Gmail so I'm not having much faith in Google to re-invent email.

Microsoft Bing--Microsoft is throwing $80 million on the table to try to unseat Google in the search engine category. I personally hate it, sight-unseen, since a) it's Microsoft and b) it's being billed as a "decision engine." Thanks Big Brother Microsoft but I like to make my own decisions. If you're curious, enjoy this preview from when it was still being called by its code name, Kumo.

Bloggers beware--new FTC guidelines affecting sponsored posts are coming later this summer.

Buzz 2009--social media for associations--was just announced today. I'm psyched that there's finally going to be a conference that goes beyond association social media 101. Not to mention that my friends Lindy Dreyer and Maddie Grant are at the helm. I'm also psyched because the king of blog ethics, Andy Sernovitz, will be there (the guy quoted in the FTC article above), as will Guy Kawasaki, who is lucky enough to be rubbing shoulders with my new goddess, The Bloggess, as I write this post.

Guy and the Bloggess (aka "Jenny" ) are right this moment embarked on the USS Nimitz, a Navy ship. I don't really get the whole thing--it's apparently an effort on the part of the Navy to embrace social media and blogging. Read/listen to this for more information about the trip; all I know is it's awesome because, while Robert Scoble and Charlene Li are super-serious social media dieties, The Bloggess is busy tweeting about sex toys and vlogging about how much xanax she'll be bringing on the trip.

The USS Nimitz trip basically illustrates, in a nutshell, why I'm obsessed with social media: because in social media world it's not only acceptable but totally desirable to be as kick-ass as you want to be. In what other context would the Navy be inviting the girl who pitched the idea "Captain Hookers"--on a very serious, super top-secret mission with very serious, super-smart business people? In social media world, though--you watch. I guarantee you that girl will emerge from that ship with a big huge book deal as good as done and will eventually have a show on HBO and be rich and famous. I'm. Telling. You.

Which Is It: Quantity Or Quality?

Social media goddess, Charlene Li, recently made some social media predictions for 2009. Here's one of them:

Exclusivity trumps accessibility. Having thousands of friends becomes "so 2008" and defriending becomes the hot new trend, driven by overwhelming rivers of newsfeeds. The movement is rooted in a desire to have quality, not quantity, as people cocoon in the face of the economic crisis. Facebook apps will emulate Twitter Grader, allowing you to prioritize your friends based on their overall social ranking -- and prune safely to ensure the highest quality friends.

So if my Twitter grade is 95 out of 100, do I count as a "highest quality friend"?

As marketers continue to try to figure out ways to monetize the huge success of social media, the success of their campaigns rests on people having as many friends/followers as possible. Not only that, but isn't the whole metric of social media authority and success gauged by number of followers/subscribers/friends? Then of course there's the obvious question: what is the definition of "friend" in the world of social media? Li suggests prioritizing your friends based on their overall social ranking. Does this mean that society is supposed to become all about "who you know" and the only friends worthy of having are the most popular--and therefore most influential or powerful--based solely on how many friends/followers they have?

Is it just me or is the whole notion of authority being based on number of friends but then wanting to pare down friends because having too many is "so 2008"--and thereby theoretically reducing your authority--confusing? In Li's case, and the case of other "Twitter elite", sure, defriending a few thousand social media nobodies wouldn't affect their own clout--but what about the 99.9% of other bloggers/tweeters out there who, for reasons either professional or personal, are trying to claw their way up the ranks? Are those people in the same position to start deleting their hard-earned followers and give up any hope of becoming social media somebodies?

Regardless of what the answers to those questions are, the reality remains that marketers are going to be in for a rude awakening if a defriending movement ever does cause the masses to start severing ties to their new social webs. While Li disparages the notion of having thousands of friends, businesses are banking on these connections. Take TurboTax's "Super Status" contest. TurboTax SuperStatus is the "ridiculously easy, super fun contest where [they] give you a challenge, and you solve it by updating your status on Facebook, MySpace and Twitter with your answer." Their "how to win" tips include "Get more friends/followers — the more friends and followers you have the better your chances are of winning."

Then there's Twitter Image, who offers "free custom Twitter backgrounds to any member with at least 3,000 followers, or for only $100 $75 for everyone else." "Everyone else" of course being the poor slobs who are not part of the Twitter elite. (Apparently this business model isn't really taking off, as evidenced by the $100 $75 bit.)

So which is it going to be--cut your network of friends to improve the quality of your social interactions, or increase it so you can win prizes?

Updates

Looooong time no write--I should just have a background soundtrack of crickets chirping in here on the very off chance anyone is actually reading. I have a new job, my two other blogs, a pinched ulnar nerve which is making half my right hand numb and therefore makes it suck to type--and so on--therefore it's been a month since I've posted anything here. Oh, and now it's the time of year before school gets out but after the pool has opened, so in addition to the regular work/take care of kids grind there's the additional chore of going to swim practice every day and keeping up with wet towels and whose swimsuit is at which house, etc.

Good times, all in all.

Fear not, though--a few weeks ago on Charlene Li's blog, Groundswell, they were offering free copies of, well, Groundswell--the book, that is. I was one of the first 100 bloggers to respond so I will be getting a free copy and will be reviewing it here.

Stay tuned...